8. TRANSNATIONAL BUSINESS GEOECONOMICS

Coordination: António Carrizo Moreira

Report on Scientific Activities and Research Projects 2025/2026

António Carrizo Moreira (coordinator); Mário Coutinho dos Santos; Jorge Mota; Victor Mendes

2. Participation of national and/or foreign researchers or entities

J.M.Pinto (Universidade Católica Portuguesa – Porto); Universidade de Aveiro / DEGEIT (projeto PRR «Vinho Espumante de Portugal»).

3. Brief description of the main work developed

– Risco de fragmentação geoeconómica: índice multidimensional para a União Europeia («Measuring Geoeconomic Fragmentation Risk» / «Knight Meets Luttwak») — em revisão por pares no International Review of Economics and Finance; pré-impressão SSRN.
– «O Custo da Fragmentação»: efeito da fragmentação geoeconómica na inércia da estrutura de capital de 121 454 empresas não financeiras da UE (2015–2024) — preprint SSRN; submissão prevista.
– Projeto «Vinho Espumante de Portugal» (2023–2025, PRR-C05-i03-I-000194; Jorge Mota, DEGEIT-UA): benchmark das estratégias de internacionalização das principais regiões concorrentes e proposta de um modelo de internacionalização para o espumante português.
– Desglobalização e cadeias de abastecimento locais no setor automóvel — Ciclo de Seminários do CICEE (26/11/2025).
– A atividade de 2025/26 do coordenador

4. Key objectives achieved

No publications completed in this area during this period; one article under peer review and one in preparation, both with preprints available on SSRN; PRR project completed.

5. Published works

No publications were completed during this period.

6. Dissemination of results

No communications were submitted during this period.

7. Conferences and Seminars held at UAL

CICEE Research Seminar Series, 26/11/2025 — “Deglobalization and the Supply Chain: consequences for local supply chains in the automotive sector”, António Carrizo Moreira (CICEE-UAL).

Plan 2025/2026

1. Research Team

António Carrizo Moreira (coordinator); Mário Coutinho dos Santos; Jorge Mota; Victor Mendes.

2. Projects to be developed and main objectives

– “Measuring Geoeconomic Fragmentation Risk: A Multidimensional Index for the European Union” (Coutinho dos Santos, Mota, Pinto and Mendes): multidimensional index of geoeconomic fragmentation risk for the EU-27; under review in the International Review of Economics and Finance.

– “The Cost of Fragmentation: Geoeconomic Risk and Corporate Capital Structure Inertia” and CGFRI index (Coutinho dos Santos, Pinto, Mendes and Mota): panel of 121,454 non-financial companies in the EU (2015–2024); geoeconomic fragmentation as a systemic shock that raises adjustment costs and destabilizes the target debt ratio; submission addressed to the special issue of the International Review of Economics and Finance.

Aims: to publish the geoeconomic fragmentation index and the study of its effects on the capital structure of European companies. The coordinator’s plan for 2026/27 (marketing, strategy and entrepreneurship) is in lines 10 and 11.

3. Activities in partnership with national and/or foreign entities

J.M.Pinto (Portuguese Catholic University – Porto); University of Aveiro / GOVCOPP.

4. Schedule

Sept. 2026 – Feb. 2027: Response to the article review in the International Review of Economics and Finance; finalization and submission of “The Cost of Fragmentation”.
Mar. – Aug. 2027: Review processes; publication of accepted articles.

Expected completion date: August 31, 2027.

5. Main results/expected outputs

Two articles in journals indexed in Scopus/Web of Science (one under review and one to be submitted), both preprinted in SSRN.